Category Prediction Markets
The Journal of Prediction Markets has just released a speciel issue named Corporate Applications for Prediction Markets.
From our point of view there are some interesting articles as The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective (wich we mentioned in an earlier post) and Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE’s Imagination Markets.
Buy the journal online and see the content here.
All the prediction markets out there certaintly think so. While Obama at the moment is leading the polls with 7.3 points he is trading around 90 at most prediction markets.
In Nyhedsspillet the Obama stock is currently trading at 94
At Iowa Electronic Market it looks like this
A check game between the grand master Gawain Jones vs. everybody else has been set up at www.crowdchess.com. At CrowdChess you can play chess in groups. Each side is made up of teams of dozens, hundreds or even thousands of people. Anyone on a team can suggest the next move, and the move that gets the most votes is the one that is played out.
It will be interesting to see if the crowd at CrowdChess can beat the master. In 1999 Kasparov won a four-month long similar match which he called “the greatest game in the history of chess.”
McKinsey Quartely has just released a great article on prediction markets called The promise of prediction markets: A roundtable.
From the abstract:
“In this roundtable, practitioners from Best Buy and Google, the author of a book about collective intelligence, and a professor of law discuss the potential of prediction markets and the main obstacles they must surmount to become a more widely used tool for making strategic decisions.”
You can download it here – all you need to do is register.
